Finley: $1,200 filly takes on graded company (2024)

When a yearling by Precise End entered the sales ring some 15 months ago in Florida, even those who had modest interest in the little filly were worried that she'd never amount to anything. It was the folks at Equirace.com, a racing syndicate, who took a chance on her, paying all of $1,200. For that kind of money, they figured they didn't have much to lose. Saturday, that same filly, now known as Expect the End, will be among the favorites in the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct while seeking her fourth straight stakes win. It just goes to show you - the only certainty in the sales rings is that there are no certainties.

"What happened? We all think we're experts and this is really a guessing game," said her breeder, Dick Simon of Sez Who Thoroughbreds.

But rarely have people been this wrong. Simon figured the filly would sell for something in the neighborhood of $50,000. But she was on the small side, her pedigree was not a fashionable one and few buyers at the August 2006 Ocala Breeders' Sales showed any interest in her. Even the Equirace.com team feared she'd never amount to anything, at least on the racetrack.

"She wasn't the most correct filly, but she had a pretty good page on her," said Luke Peltz, Equirace.com's racing and business manager. "We have a stallion (Freefourinternet) in Florida that's being moved to Pennsylvania. We figured that if she wasn't going to be a racehorse, she'd be an alright broodmare with her pedigree."

Some nine months later, they knew they had something a lot better than an "alright broodmare." Expect the End was entered in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last May and won by three-quarters of a length. Sent off at 2-1, someone was betting on her.

"We thought $30,000 would be a pretty good spot for her," Peltz said. "We didn't think she'd hold together in the long run. We happened to be wrong. That's part of the business."

Trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. was, as usual, paying attention, and he claimed the filly because he was eligible for the lucrative New York-bred races at his base, the NYRA tracks.

"It wasn't like we had heard anything about her around the barn area," Dutrow said. "We claimed her because $30,000 isn't a lot to put up for a New York-bred. We never dreamed anything like this would happen."

Dutrow is a master at improving horses once they enter his barn and he started working his magic with Expect the End. She finished second in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth in her first start for Dutrow and then reeled off consecutive wins in three stakes for New York breds. Her career earnings stand at $198,380. The Demoiselle, a $200,000 race, will be a step up in company for her and her first try around two turns, but it looks like she has a big chance. Simon estimated that she'll be worth as much as $500,000 should she win the Demoiselle.

"All of us experts, when we evaluated her before the sale didn't think she was much horse," Simon said. "She didn't look the part and she didn't act the part. Now, she's with Dutrow, who is a helluva trainer. He knows what he's doing and is obviously a lot smarter than we are."

About three weeks after Expect the End sold, the big boys starting showing up at Keeneland for the September sale and they came with their check books. Three horses sold at that sale for more than $8 million. Two of them have never run and the one that did, a $9.2 million yearling by Danzig, finished ninth in his lone start. But they won't go down as the biggest busts in racing history, a title that The Green Monkey has all but wrapped up. He cost $16 million at a 2-year-old sale, has run three times, has never won and has earned $10,440. There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him. He's just a slow horse, slower than the $1,200 yearling Expect the End.

"It's a fascinating game," Simon said. "You never know for sure what's going to happen. I've had many of these kind of stories and I've had many of the other kind of stories, where we sell them for a lot of money and we expect them to go out there and do something special. Then, they don't do anything. You just never know for sure."

Bill Finley is an award-winning racing writer whose work has appeared in the New York Times, USA Today and Sports Illustrated. Contact Bill at wnfinley@aol.com.